Cambrian Market Report

• 95124 single-family: $1.925M median (-8.3% year over year); 37 active, 39 closed; 14 median days; 102% of list; 0.9 months of inventory.
• 95118 single-family: $1.60M median (-3.1% year over year); 26 active, 17 closed; 22 median days; 102% of list; 1.5 months of inventory.
• Townhomes and condos: 3.5 months of inventory in 95124 and 3.3 in 95118; one-month medians rest on only three and one closings.
• Financing: Freddie Mac's 30-year average was 7.28% on October 1. At 20% down on $1.925M, illustrative principal and interest is about $10,540 monthly before taxes, insurance and other costs.

Freddie Mac's weekly 30-year fixed average reached 7.28% on October 1, up from 7.03% one week earlier. Mortgage News Daily's lender-sheet index was 7.60% on September 30. The surveys use different methods and timing, but both show financing becoming more restrictive after the August contracts behind this report's closing data.

With 20% down on the $1.925M benchmark, 7.28% implies about $10,540 per month in principal and interest before taxes, insurance and other costs. This is an illustration, not a quote. The Federal Reserve raised its target range by one-quarter point on September 16, but mortgage pricing does not move one-for-one with that policy rate.

C.A.R.'s second-quarter index found that 22% of Santa Clara County households could afford its $2.05M county median single-family home. Buyers should compare live fixed, adjustable-rate and buydown quotes; sellers should test whether a targeted credit improves payment more effectively than a price reduction.

The practical October signal is purchasing-power sensitivity, not a universal loss of demand. Strong homes can still move, but the price, condition and financing package must work together.

Practical single-family homes with verified school value. Buyers respond when the location, floor plan, commute, and assignment are clear.

Updated homes below nearby city price points. Cambrian's relative-value case is strongest when a buyer can move in without a major systems project.

Homes priced from current competition. Sale-to-list strength can coexist with longer marketing time when the opening price creates room for discovery.

Homes priced from spring scarcity. Higher financing costs and more alternatives make buyers less willing to absorb condition or location compromises.

Townhomes and condos without a clear value case. Inventory measured 3.3 to 3.5 months, versus 0.9 to 1.5 for single-family homes.

Unresolved property questions. School assignment, permits, HOA obligations and unpriced roof, electrical or plumbing work can turn a home into an alternative rather than the first choice.

Santa Clara County's August single-family median was $1.85M, down 1.6% year over year, while sales fell 13.6%. Cambrian's two ZIP market segments still averaged 102% of list, but their medians were down 8.3% and 3.1% year over year.

That combination is not contradictory. Competitive list-price strategy can produce over-asking sales even while the mix and level of closed prices soften. 95124's 0.9 months of inventory supported faster turnover; 95118's 1.5 months and 22-day median gave buyers more comparison time.

Cambrian Park Plaza. San Jose approved the mixed-use plan in 2022: 305 apartments over retail, a 229-room hotel, senior living, 25 townhomes, 48 single-family homes with 27 ADUs, and four acres of open space.

What changed: Kimco's February 2026 amendment keeps the approved uses, residential count and total commercial area, but proposes five buildout phases, with the first divided into 1A and 1B. KQED reported that the request would let housing proceed first and extend the permit up to four years. The city still lists the amendment for review; no construction-start date is posted.

Why it matters and what to watch: Phasing can determine how long the plaza remains in transition and when retail, gathering space, roads and parkland arrive. Watch the approval terms, the first phase permit, and whether commercial and public-space commitments advance with housing. This is not driving today's resale figures; it is a longer-term community and plaza-adjacent value issue.

Prediction: Through early 2027, well-prepared single-family homes should remain the most competitive segment. Higher rates and seasonal selection should widen the gap between a strong launch and weak buyer response, while townhomes and condos offer buyers more negotiating room.

This is a market outlook, not a guarantee of future value. Property condition, micro-location, school assignment, lot, architecture, insurance, and financing can materially change an individual result.

For homeowners:

• Use sales from the same school district, municipal jurisdiction, ZIP and housing type; Cambrian addresses can share a name but not the same services or buyer demand.
• monitor the plaza amendment for first-phase timing and delivery of retail, roads, parkland and gathering space.
• Track 95124 and 95118 separately: 39 versus 17 single-family closings and different inventory levels mean a Cambrian-wide change can misstate the value of a specific home.

For sellers:

• Price 95124 and 95118 separately and test the launch against current listings; August closings predate the 7.28% rate and can overstate today's payment-supported price.
• For an older Cambrian house, price the roof, electrical, plumbing and permitted additions before launch; buyers comparing neighboring ZIPs will deduct more for unknown work.
• In 95124 or 95118, package school, permit, inspection, and HOA evidence before launch; when buyers can compare neighboring ZIPs, unanswered questions become a direct price adjustment.

For buyers:

• At the $1.925M 95124 benchmark, 7.28% implies about $10,540 monthly before taxes and insurance; compare live fixed, adjustable and buydown quotes before setting the ceiling.
• Treat 0.9-to-1.5-month house supply as a quick-decision market, but use 3.3-to-3.5-month townhome-and-condo supply to compare documents and terms before committing.
• Verify the exact school district, municipal jurisdiction, permits, and HOA before removing contingencies; Cambrian addresses can look similar while carrying different rules, services, and resale audiences.